Simpson's Paradox
A trend visible inside separate groups can disappear or reverse when the groups are combined, usually because a hidden variable changes the aggregate picture.
Terminology for phenomena and principles
A working glossary of named paradoxes, effects, principles, laws, and recurring ideas that are useful for describing behavior, systems, incentives, memory, ethics, and decision-making.
116 entries
A trend visible inside separate groups can disappear or reverse when the groups are combined, usually because a hidden variable changes the aggregate picture.
The range of ideas and opinions considered acceptable in public discourse at a given time. Ideas outside it are treated as radical or unacceptable.
A small share of causes often produces most of the result: commonly framed as 20 percent of effort creating 80 percent of the outcome.
A person's condition improves because they believe a treatment will work, even when the treatment itself has no active therapeutic mechanism.
Also known as Perverse Incentive
A poorly designed incentive makes the original problem worse. The classic story is a bounty for dead cobras that encouraged people to breed cobras.
People change their behavior when they know they are being watched. It is especially visible in social experiments, workplaces, and public settings.
People with low skill may overestimate their competence, while highly skilled people may underestimate theirs, because self-assessment itself requires expertise.
Also known as Paradox of Plenty
More options can make choosing harder and reduce satisfaction with the final decision, because abundance adds stress, comparison, and regret.
Also known as Rosenthal Effect
High expectations from others can improve performance and behavior. It often appears in education, management, and mentoring relationships.
Tiny changes in initial conditions can lead to large and unpredictable outcomes in complex systems. The term is associated with chaos theory.
An ethical dilemma about choosing between harms in order to minimize total damage. It is used to study moral reasoning under pressure.
A shared false memory, where many people confidently remember something that did not happen or happened differently than they recall.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. It humorously captures the inevitability of problems in complex situations and systems.
A self-referential contradiction, usually expressed as 'This sentence is false.' It exposes limits in formal logic and truth statements.
Also known as Avalanche Effect
A small action or event starts a chain reaction that grows in force and scale, often in social, economic, or organizational systems.
Also known as Forer Effect
People interpret vague and general personality descriptions as uniquely accurate. The effect helps explain belief in horoscopes and generic personality readings.
A probability puzzle showing that switching choices after new information is revealed can improve the chance of winning, despite seeming counterintuitive.
People tend to overestimate the effect of technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run.
Also known as Social Loafing
Individual effort often decreases as group size increases, because people feel less personal responsibility for the shared result.
Unfinished tasks are remembered better than completed ones. This helps explain why unresolved work keeps occupying attention.
Increasing access to a resource can unexpectedly encourage overuse, producing shortage, degradation, or a worse overall situation.
Performance or behavior improves because people receive attention from researchers or supervisors, rather than because the underlying conditions changed.
Most people's friends have, on average, more friends than they do, because highly connected people appear in more social circles.
Economic forecasts can fail because people change behavior in response to the policies or expectations that the forecasts assume.
Attempts to simplify or organize a complex system can sometimes make it more complicated and harder to manage.
Work expands to fill the time available for its completion, regardless of the task's intrinsic complexity.
The first piece of information strongly influences later judgments, estimates, and decisions, even when the anchor is arbitrary.
People often exert more effort as they get closer to a goal, because visible progress increases motivation.
When a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure. Campbell's Law is closely related: social indicators used for decisions become easier to manipulate.
An attempt to hide or suppress information draws more attention to it and causes it to spread more widely.
A mistake can make a competent person seem more likable and human, because imperfection reduces distance.
People doubt their achievements and fear being exposed as frauds, even when there is strong evidence of competence.
Information expressed in a complicated way can appear more convincing or truthful, even when complexity does not improve accuracy.
People overestimate how much others share their beliefs, preferences, judgments, or behavior.
Altruistic behavior can evolve when the benefit to relatives, weighted by genetic relatedness, exceeds the cost to the individual.
Initial success tends to create more success, while early disadvantage can compound into further disadvantage.
First impressions and initial beliefs can persist even after later evidence contradicts them.
People are more likely to support an idea, product, or behavior when it already appears popular.
People favor the first system, tool, or experience they learned, even when later alternatives may be better.
Unlimited tolerance can be destroyed by intolerant forces if a tolerant society refuses to defend itself against intolerance.
People notice cognitive biases in others more easily than they notice the same biases in themselves.
Having more free time can lead to using that time less effectively, because scarcity often creates focus and structure.
People remember experiences largely by their most intense moment and by how they ended, not by the total average experience.
Too much information reduces the ability to think clearly, make decisions, and process important details.
Collective input can produce better answers than individual judgment when diverse perspectives are combined well.
A person or group becomes insulated by knowledge, authority, or success and stops taking practical criticism seriously.
Majority decisions are not always optimal, wise, or fair, especially when incentives, information, or rights are unevenly distributed.
An attempt to persuade someone produces the opposite reaction, strengthening resistance instead of changing their mind.
A situation is framed as if only a limited set of choices exists, hiding other possible options.
Information from a questionable source may become more persuasive over time as memory of the source fades.
New information is interpreted through existing beliefs, making evidence feel more supportive of what someone already thinks.
Greater efficiency in using a resource can increase total consumption of that resource instead of reducing it.
People subconsciously copy the posture, gestures, speech patterns, or behavior of others during interaction.
Universal rules can be easier to break than specific local rules, because broad rules often miss contextual constraints.
Sustained growth requires changes that can destabilize the very system that growth depends on.
People conform to group behavior or opinion, sometimes against their own judgment, because group belonging feels safer.
Systems that solve one set of problems often create new problems elsewhere.
Restrictions or opposition can make a forbidden relationship, idea, or object more attractive.
A contrasting environment can make an object or signal more visible.
Short-term events are often overestimated, while long-term patterns and consequences are underestimated.
Regret over missed opportunities can feel stronger than satisfaction from what was actually gained.
The presence of other people can improve or worsen performance depending on task difficulty and confidence.
People behave differently when they know not only a fact, but also that others know it too.
People are less likely to help when many witnesses are present, because responsibility feels diffused.
A stable complex system can become vulnerable to small disruptions because hidden fragilities accumulate during calm periods.
Expectations change behavior in ways that make the expected outcome more likely to happen.
A wiser person is more aware of the limits of their knowledge and therefore doubts their certainty more.
Persistent pleading can provoke resistance instead of sympathy, especially when the request feels manipulative or excessive.
Members of a group may pull down anyone who starts succeeding, preserving equality by suppressing upward movement.
Small visible successes can motivate more strongly than distant large outcomes because they create momentum and confidence.
Expectations influence perception, interpretation, and behavior, shaping what people notice and how they respond.
Also known as Carpenter Effect
Thinking about a movement can unconsciously produce tiny physical movements that feel intentional or externally guided.
People seek, notice, and remember information that supports existing beliefs while discounting contradictory evidence.
Provocative or disturbing messages attract attention, though attention does not always translate into trust or persuasion.
People judge likelihood by examples that come easily to mind, especially vivid, recent, or emotionally charged examples.
Visible disorder and small rule violations can encourage more disorder by signaling that norms are not being maintained.
Complex or overwhelming problems can make people avoid action entirely, which lets the problem grow worse.
People tend to agree with a majority view even when it conflicts with their own perception or judgment.
Attempts to create complete equality can sometimes create new forms of unfairness or hidden hierarchy.
Regret over unused opportunities can intensify over time, especially when people imagine better alternate outcomes.
Information surges are often accompanied by false, unverified, or distorted details.
Anything that can be automated will eventually be automated.
Mistakes, accidents, or chance encounters can lead to important discoveries that were not the original goal.
The more intermediaries a message passes through, the more likely it is to become distorted.
Holding power can reduce empathy and weaken the ability to understand the experience of others.
People unconsciously copy gestures, speech, posture, or behavior, often increasing rapport without noticing it.
Borrowing can lead to further borrowing as debt service grows, creating a self-reinforcing financial burden.
Evaluation of an object depends heavily on what it is compared with at that moment.
An obvious problem is ignored or left unspoken by everyone involved because addressing it is uncomfortable.
If everyone tries to save more at once, total demand can fall and economic growth can slow.
Old technologies, methods, and habits persist even when better alternatives exist, because replacement has costs and risks.
Focusing on one option or explanation blocks awareness of alternatives.
A chance success can create false confidence in someone's competence or method.
People prefer eliminating a small risk entirely over reducing a larger risk substantially, even when the latter helps more.
Given enough observers, errors become easier to find. The idea is often summarized as many eyes making bugs shallow.
Evidence against a belief can sometimes strengthen that belief instead of weakening it.
Complex systems that work usually evolve from simple systems that worked. Complex systems designed from scratch often fail.
As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Hitler or Nazis approaches one.
People assign extra value to things they helped create or assemble, even when the result is not objectively better.
Small mistakes and inaccuracies can accumulate over time until they cause serious consequences or system failures.
A general impression of a person or object influences judgment of specific traits, making evaluations less objective.
Each generation accepts its current environment as normal and may miss gradual decline or change that happened earlier.
People value things they own more than similar things they do not own, partly because giving them up feels like loss.
Also known as Robustness Principle
Be conservative in what you send and liberal in what you accept. The principle encourages resilient interaction between systems or people.
A challenging or disruptive participant can stimulate competition and make a group work harder, like a catfish keeping transported fish active.
People often reason more wisely about other people's problems than about their own.
Also known as Forer Effect
General and vague statements can feel personally accurate. This duplicate entry is kept because the source list repeats the concept.
Also known as Ivory Tower Syndrome
Powerful, knowledgeable, or successful people can lose contact with practical reality and ignore feedback from outside their circle.
A task always takes longer than expected, even when Hofstadter's Law is taken into account.
A shared resource can be depleted when each participant acts in personal interest while ignoring long-term collective consequences.
Kant's moral principle: act only according to a maxim that you could also will to become a universal law.
Without clear signals of humor or sarcasm, parody of extremism can be indistinguishable from sincere extremism.
If one should ruin expensive clothes to save a nearby drowning child, similar logic suggests sacrificing resources to save distant lives.
Average IQ test scores rose across much of the twentieth century, likely due to education, nutrition, medicine, information access, and cognitive demands.
Tax revenue can rise or fall as tax rates change. Very low rates collect little; very high rates can reduce activity or compliance.
People may give socially acceptable answers in polls that differ from how they later vote or behave, distorting predictions.